CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-12-23T11:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-12-23T11:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35881/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery and is not observed in STEREO A COR2 due to limited imagery from an ongoing campaign. There is an overlapping CME which appears directed towards the southwest starting around 2024-12-23T11:48Z which may be associated with far-sided activity and is separate from this event. The source is likely associated with the M8.9 flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 13932 (S18E30) starting around 2024-12-23T11:10Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. Ejected material is observed best in GOES SUVI 304 imagery which appears to deflect south of the eruption site. Additionally, dimming is observed south/southwest of the eruption site, centered near S35E20 in GOES SUVI 195 imagery around 2024-12-23T11:15Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-25T13:43Z (-5.43h, +3.7h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/12/23 11:20Z Plane of Sky 1: 17:40Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 18:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction POS Difference: 1:00 POS Midpoint: 18:10Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:50 Numeric View/Impact Type: 4 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.37 Travel Time: ~7.37 * 6:50 = 50:23 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-12-25T13:43Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh Forecast Creation Time: 2024/12/23 21:58ZLead Time: 39.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-12-23T22:09Z
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